# Table 4: Local Projections — Doom Loop Dynamics

Does the fiscal-demographic interaction propagate forward?

| Horizon | DV | Interaction β | SE | p-value | N |
|---:|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| h=1 | Δrating | -0.0306 | 0.0466 | 0.5114 | 764 |
| h=1 | Δdebt | 0.0101 | 0.3373 | 0.9761 | 897 |
| h=2 | Δrating | -0.0058 | 0.1149 | 0.9597 | 744 |
| h=2 | Δdebt | -0.1257 | 0.4520 | 0.7810 | 867 |
| h=3 | Δrating | -0.0504 | 0.1577 | 0.7496 | 720 |
| h=3 | Δdebt | -0.2968 | 0.4821 | 0.5384 | 837 |
| h=5 | Δrating | -0.1758 | 0.2855 | 0.5383 | 672 |
| h=5 | Δdebt | 0.7439 | 0.6397 | 0.2453 | 777 |
